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Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Wednesday's Trading Talk

Lots of technical issues affecting this week's trading as well as the Fed announcement today.

On the fundamental end, the Fed comments today will most strongly influence the agency mREITs. If the Fed appears more aggressive about the need to raise rates, there will be downward pressure on the agency mREITs.

Compounding the downward pressure on the agency mREITs is the fact that Annaly Capital (NLY) went ex-dividend today, Capstead Mortgage (CMO) goes ex-dividend tomorrow, and Hatteras Financial (HTS) goes ex-dividend tomorrow.

Several other mREITs are going ex-dividend tomorrow, including JER Investors Trust (JRT), Gramercy Capital (GKK), Capital Trust (CT), PMC Commercial Trust (PCC), Crystal River Capital (CRZ), Resource Capital (RSO), and CBRE Realty Finance (CBF).

Since I've being watching mREITs, they tend to drop somewhat following their ex-dividend dates by more than the amount of the dividend. If your tax situation is such that you'd prefer capital appreciation than income, you may want to sell the dividend today.

Also, don't forget about the effects of the Russell rebalancing. There was quite a bit of downward pressure on high volume in trading of Impac Mortgage Holdings (IMH), Deerfield Capital (DFR), and Alesco Financial (AFN) shares yesterday. All three stocks are being deleted from the Russell 3000 on Friday.

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